Although past performance does tend to shorten a horse

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buy canada goose jacket cheap The views expressed are his own.) buy canada goose jacket cheap

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Canada Goose Parka LONDON, Dec 23 (Reuters) Is betting on horses very different from picking stocks? Can understanding cheap Canada Goose a gambler approach and mentality give a better understanding of fund managers? Canada Goose Parka

In searching uk canada goose outlet for answers to these questions, I spoke to Paul Moulton, a professional gambler who originally worked in the fund management industry. He then set up a fund https://www.canadagooseoutletmall.com research company (Fitzrovia International, which he eventually sold to Reuters), canadagooseoutletmall although his working life began with an attempt to become a professional chess player.

Most of the fraternity of professional gamblers who make a living from horse racing are what Moulton describes as or

Canada Goose Outlet This group do not really look at horses at all, but look at market canada goose factory sale movements, hedging back their bets, and aiming to make tiny but regular profits with much less risk. They remain tucked away canada goose clearance sale in their homes in front of an array of computer screens. Canada Goose Outlet

Moulton sees himself as part of a second, smaller group of professional punters, those he refers to as some Canada Goose sale of whom look at horses in the paddock to assess their physical condition and thus their chances, while others are more reliant on assessing form based on previous races.

Some of them may even be conscious of the FSA warnings on funds past performance, which is deemed to be no guide to future returns. Although past performance does tend to shorten a horse starting price.

Canada Goose sale As part of this approach, Moulton has gathered vast amounts of data on all aspects of racing (jockeys, trainers, pedigrees, speed figures and so on) in a database that covers all horses Canada Goose Outlet in all races in the UK and Ireland since January 2005. Canada Goose sale

Although his background in fund research lends itself to such an approach, Moulton admits that, while his original idea was to everyone else, this approach has turned out to be much more limited for determining which outsiders to back.

canada goose coats on sale He buy canada goose jacket cheap did try to do all of this from home, canada goose but in the end he was better able to deal with losses when trackside. uk canada goose The journey home enables Moulton to carry canada goose uk shop out a post mortem of his performance, win or lose, and canada goose clearance to clear his mind before returning to the family. canada goose coats on sale

canada goose deals So he now spends more time looking at the horses in the paddock too, even though being at a course means that it canada goose coats is a little more when trying to work out the market is doing canada goose deals

canada goose clearance But even this has a beneficial side effect: it is far easier to bet on too many horses in canada goose uk black friday too many races when sitting at home and betting over the internet, he says, while, for practical reasons, this is far less the case canadian goose jacket when at a course. canada goose clearance

canadian goose jacket So Moulton travels the country pretty much every day, from Redcar to Uttoxeter, Beverley canada goose coats on sale to Haydock Park, not forgetting Newmarket, Ascot and Goodwood. From his own experience of building a horse racing database, he is all too aware of the desire to cheap canada goose uk add in a new piece of information after virtually every race. canadian goose jacket

canada goose store In the early canada goose uk outlet days this process of amassing more and more data on which Canada Goose Coats On Sale to base decisions was he says, but he has found that doesn help results. The more detailed any extra analysis that he runs, the smaller the sample size becomes (for more recent races) and the less meaningful the findings are. canada goose store

filtered to that degree, apparent patterns Canada Goose Online are really just statistical tricks.

canada goose clearance sale At its heart, Moulton approach to placing bets is to look for value in the market. canada goose clearance sale

He creates a for each race, assessing the price at which he would be prepared to back a horse and then compares this to the odds offered by a bookmaker.

Moulton tries to divorce himself from picking winners. can pick winners, he says. no point in picking winners if you backing them at the wrong prices, because sooner or later you come a cropper.

buy canada goose jacket It for this reason that he always reluctant to answer the question from the occasional punter is going to win the 2.30 at Haydock? buy canada goose jacket

canada goose all likelihood I back several horses in the race if I think they good value and still expect to lose, which most punters can quite get their heads around. canada goose

Canada Goose online Yet after all this work over the past five years of professional gambling, it might come as a surprise that 93 percent of the time Moulton chosen horses lose. Canada Goose online

Luca Cumani, one of British racing leading trainers (and who trains some horses that Moulton owns), on hearing this said, I got 93 percent of my decisions wrong, I would not be able to call myself a professional anything.

Canada Goose Jackets Moulton response to this is that it doesn matter as long as the average odds of his selections are greater than canada goose store a 7 percent chance (or 13 1) because, in the end, all about profit Canada Goose Jackets

canada goose black friday sale In Moulton view, each gambler has to decide where on this spectrum Canada Goose Jackets he believes he can succeed, much Canada Goose online of which comes down to temperament. Most professional gamblers are focused on those horses with shorter odds, while Moulton chooses horses with longer odds but has to deal with losing more frequently. canada goose black friday sale

cheap Canada Goose He canada goose black friday sale admits that there are very few punters at his end of the spectrum. But this does not buy canada goose jacket come as a surprise, indeed he seems to relish the apparent loneliness. As he says, does do funny things to your brain when you lose 93 percent of your bets cheap Canada Goose.